The Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) has not found any symptoms of improvements in the construction complex.
The Russian Federal State Service published a report, “Social and economic conditions in Russia”, in January, 2016. The document includes information on the development of the Russian construction complex in 2015 and in January, 2016.
First, let us consider some data on the economic situation as a whole. The general index of commodity and services output for basic economic activities in January 2016 was 96.5% of that of January, 2015.
The industrial production index for January, 2016, as compared with January, 2015, was at 97.3%, but as compared with December, 2015, it was only 80.3%.
It proves that, in spite of high-ranking officials’ assertions about the gradual overcoming of the crisis, the decline in the construction sphere has not been stopped but is ongoing.
The fact that the economy is not in the best shape is proved by the following: according to a business activity data analysis of 194 organizations (mineral production enterprises) in February, 2016, the business confidence index decreased by 4%, and mining is a key sector of the national economy.
Conditions in the processing industries are even worse. The production index in January, 2016, as compared with January, 2015 was 94.4%, and, as compared with December, 2015, 67.4%.
It is not surprising that, according to business activity data analysis covering 2,432 organizations in the processing industry sector, in February, 2016, the business confidence index decreased by 5%.
But the real fall was observed on the market for machinery and equipment production. In January, 2016, as compared with January, 2015, the index in the sector was 102.2% — i.e. production output grew slightly. But if we compare these results with December, 2015, they are 41.2% down.
Building less, but cheaper
And what is going on in the construction sector? The volume of construction and assembly works in January, 2016 totaled 261.0 bln roubles, or 95.8% (in comparable prices) as compared with the corresponding period last year.
86.8 thousand new flats were built in January, 2016 via all forms of ownership. 1.8m m2 of the total housing area was built by individual developers, or 32.8% of the total housing put in operation, in January, 2016. The actual average cost of 1 m2 of the total housing area built in 2015 was 39,128 roubles (in 2014, it was 39,447 roubles).
The highest construction costs in 2015, 1.5-fold more than all the rest of Russia, were registered in the Chukotka Autonomous Area (100,783 roubles for 1 m2), in the Magadan district (63,274 roubles), in the Sakhalin area (63,150 roubles), in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area (63,041 roubles) and in the Kamchatka Area (59,384 roubles).
In 59 regions of the Russian Federation, the cost was lower than the Russian average. The lowest is in the Republic of Dagestan (21,594 roubles), in the Kursk region (24,657 roubles) and in the Republic of Ingushetia (24,865 roubles).
Thus the data on the first month of 2016 show that the decline in the construction complex has not been overcome yet. Some analysts’ forecasts about the construction volume decrease in 2016 are coming true.
However, there won’t be any sharp fall. According to the majority of experts, the industry will be slowly sliding down.
Prepared by Vladimir GURVICH