The GDP of Russia will fall by 0.3% in the first quarter of the year according to the RF Central Bank’s forecast review, published on Tuesday under the title “Economics: facts, assessments, comments”.
The document states that an improvement in the dynamics of the annual growth rate of economic indicators has been caused by the calendar factor and the low base effect.
Nevertheless, the monthly dynamic of indicators demonstrates the continuation of an economic downturn. At the same time, the Russian economy’s reaction to the oil price decline at the beginning of 2016 has proved to be weaker than it was last year.
In general, the annual decline in GDP for the first quarter is estimated at a level of 1.7–2%, which is closer to the upper interval limit of the forecast in the March issue of the Central Bank’s review on monetary policy.